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Baseline Modeling Discipline

Learn Baseline Modeling Discipline for free with explanations, exercises, and a quick test (for NLP Engineer).

Published: January 5, 2026 | Updated: January 5, 2026

Who this is for

NLP Engineers and ML practitioners who build classical NLP systems (TF-IDF, bag-of-words, linear models) and want a reliable, repeatable way to set and beat baselines before adding complexity.

Prerequisites

  • Comfortable with Python or another language for ML experiments.
  • Basic understanding of metrics: precision, recall, F1, ROC-AUC/PR-AUC.
  • Knowledge of train/validation/test splits and cross-validation.
  • Familiarity with TF-IDF and linear models (Logistic Regression or Linear SVM).

Why this matters

Baseline modeling discipline helps you ship reliable NLP solutions faster and safer. Real tasks you will face:

  • Quickly verifying if a business problem is solvable with simple features before investing in complex models.
  • Setting acceptance criteria for stakeholders (e.g., "+5 macro-F1 over TF-IDF + Logistic Regression").
  • Preventing data leakage by following a clean, repeatable workflow.
  • Explaining performance trade-offs using transparent baselines and error breakdowns.
  • Creating a safe fallback model that is easy to maintain and debug.

Concept explained simply

Baseline modeling discipline is a habit: start with simple, transparent models, prove a reliable yardstick, and require every new idea to beat it fairly. Think of it as defensive driving for ML experiments.

Mental model: guardrails and yardsticks

  • Guardrails: rules that prevent bad experiments (leakage, cherry-picking, unreproducible results).
  • Yardsticks: simple, trustworthy baselines that any new model must beat with a margin.

Core rules

  • Define the task and metric clearly (e.g., macro-F1 for imbalanced classification).
  • Start with naive baselines: random, majority class, simple keyword/regex or lexicon heuristic.
  • Add a simple ML baseline: TF-IDF + linear model with reproducible settings.
  • Use proper splits: stratified train/validation/test; never peek at test during development.
  • Reproducibility: fix random seeds, record dataset version and preprocessing choices.
  • Evaluate fairly: report multiple metrics, confidence intervals if possible, and per-class scores.
  • Sanity checks: shuffled-label test should drop to chance; tiny-slice tests should behave intuitively.
  • Freeze the baseline: log config and metrics; require a clear margin and a significance check to accept new models.
Baseline types — quick reference
  • Trivial: random guess, stratified random, majority class.
  • Heuristic: keyword/regex rules, sentiment lexicon counts, most-frequent-tag per token (for sequence labeling).
  • Simple ML: TF-IDF + Logistic Regression/Linear SVM (often surprisingly strong).
  • Upper bound (ceiling): human performance on a sample or an oracle feature ablation to estimate headroom.
Sanity-check recipes
  • Shuffle labels: performance should drop to chance (e.g., ~0.5 macro-F1 in balanced binary tasks).
  • Vocabulary leak check: build vectorizers only on training folds; never on the full dataset before splitting.
  • Class imbalance check: compare macro-F1 vs accuracy; big gaps signal imbalance.
  • Slice tests: evaluate on short texts, long texts, and noisy texts separately.

Set up your baseline workflow

  1. Write the task statement and metric. Example: "Binary sentiment; primary metric = macro-F1; secondary = accuracy."
  2. Freeze data handling. Stratified split into train/validation/test. Keep test untouched until the end.
  3. Implement naive baselines (majority, random, simple keyword). Record metrics.
  4. Implement TF-IDF + linear model. Use cross-validation on train for a stable estimate; then evaluate once on test.
  5. Run sanity checks (shuffle labels, slice tests). If anything fails, fix before proceeding.
  6. Log everything: seed, split method, vectorizer settings, model hyperparameters, metrics, confusion matrix.
  7. Freeze as "Baseline v1". Define a margin for acceptance (e.g., +2–3 macro-F1) and a significance test plan.
Pro tips for reliable baselines
  • Use stratified K-fold cross-validation (e.g., 5 folds) for stable estimates on small datasets.
  • Prefer macro-F1 or PR-AUC when classes are imbalanced.
  • For text classification, try unigrams+bigrams TF-IDF and a linear model before anything else.
  • Document all preprocessing (lowercasing, stopwords, min_df). Small changes can shift metrics.

Worked examples

Example 1: Sentiment classification (balanced)

  • Naive baselines: majority accuracy ≈ 0.50; macro-F1 ≈ 0.50.
  • TF-IDF + Logistic Regression: CV macro-F1 ≈ 0.78–0.90; test macro-F1 often ≥ 0.75 on clean data.
  • Sanity: shuffled-label macro-F1 ≈ chance (≈ 0.5); if not, investigate leakage.

Example 2: Spam detection (imbalanced)

  • Naive majority: high accuracy (e.g., 0.90) but poor recall for spam — misleading.
  • Metric choice: PR-AUC and macro-F1 to value minority class. Consider class_weight="balanced".
  • TF-IDF + Linear SVM: improves minority recall; tune threshold on validation to balance precision/recall.

Example 3: NER (sequence labeling)

  • Naive baseline: tag each token with its most frequent tag seen in training; unknown tokens → "O".
  • Heuristic baseline: simple dictionary for names + capitalization features.
  • Simple ML baseline: CRF with word shape + affix + cluster features; evaluate with entity-level F1.

Exercises

Complete the two exercises below. Use the checklist to confirm your baseline discipline before you submit.

  • Exercise 1: Build majority and TF-IDF + Logistic Regression baselines on a toy sentiment set. Report macro-F1, accuracy, confusion matrix, and sanity checks.
  • Exercise 2: Design a baseline plan for an imbalanced intent classification task. Choose metrics, splits, baselines, success criteria, and a reporting template.

Submission checklist

  • Clear task statement and chosen primary/secondary metrics.
  • Stratified split with fixed random seed recorded.
  • Naive baselines implemented and logged.
  • TF-IDF + linear baseline with CV estimate and a single test evaluation.
  • Sanity checks run (shuffle-label and at least one slice test).
  • All hyperparameters and metrics recorded; short error analysis included.

Common mistakes and how to self-check

  • Leakage via vectorizer: Did you fit TF-IDF on the whole dataset before splitting? If yes, redo with train-only.
  • Overfitting to test: Did you peek at test scores while tuning? If yes, create a new final test or reset tuning.
  • Wrong metric for imbalance: Are accuracy and macro-F1 diverging a lot? Use macro-F1/PR-AUC and per-class scores.
  • No seed control: Can you reproduce results exactly? If not, fix seeds and log versions.
  • Unstable estimates: Are results jumping across runs? Use cross-validation and report mean±std.

Practical projects

  • Product review sentiment: establish majority/keyword baselines, then TF-IDF + Logistic Regression; ship a baseline API.
  • Support email triage: imbalanced multi-class; choose macro-F1 + PR-AUC, add class weights, and slice by sender domain.
  • Rule vs model showdown: build a regex/keyword heuristic and compare fairly to a TF-IDF baseline on a frozen test set.

Learning path

  • After baselines: feature scaling of TF-IDF outputs, n-gram exploration, character n-grams for noisy text.
  • Model calibration: reliability curves and threshold selection.
  • Error analysis: confusion hotspots, per-class failures, and iterative ablation.
  • Transition to neural baselines only after you beat the classical baseline with a fair protocol.

Mini challenge

Pick any small dataset you have (or use the toy one from Exercise 1). Create a baseline scoreboard (majority, heuristic, TF-IDF + linear). Define a +3 macro-F1 acceptance margin. Propose one feature change (e.g., add character n-grams) and test if it beats the margin with a significance check plan.

Hints
  • Keep the test set untouched; compare changes via cross-validation on train or with a fixed validation set.
  • Use stratified bootstrap of paired predictions to estimate confidence in the improvement.

Quick Test

The quick test is available to everyone. Only logged-in users will have their progress saved.

Next steps

  • Run the Quick Test below to check your understanding.
  • Apply the discipline to your next real task and freeze a Baseline v1.
  • Move on to deeper feature engineering once your baseline is solid and reproducible.

Practice Exercises

2 exercises to complete

Instructions

Use the tiny dataset below to establish baselines. Keep everything reproducible.

Dataset (texts, labels):

texts = [
  "I love this movie, it was fantastic!",
  "Absolutely terrible and boring.",
  "Great acting and plot.",
  "Worst film ever.",
  "I enjoyed every minute.",
  "Not good, not bad, just ok.",
  "Horrible experience.",
  "What a masterpiece!",
  "Mediocre at best.",
  "I would watch it again.",
  "Painfully dull.",
  "Loved the soundtrack and visuals."
]
labels = [
  "pos","neg","pos","neg","pos","neg",
  "neg","pos","neg","pos","neg","pos"
]
  1. Split the data into train/test with stratification, test_size=0.2, random_state=42.
  2. Naive baseline: majority-class classifier. Report accuracy and macro-F1 on test.
  3. Simple ML baseline: TF-IDF (unigrams+bigrams) + Logistic Regression (max_iter=1000). Use 5-fold CV on train to estimate macro-F1. Then fit on train and evaluate once on test: accuracy, macro-F1, per-class precision/recall/F1, and confusion matrix.
  4. Sanity check: shuffle the training labels, retrain, and confirm performance drops to chance.
  5. Log: seed, vectorizer settings, model hyperparameters, and metrics.

Note: Small datasets lead to noisy test metrics; that is why you also report cross-validation mean±std.

Expected Output
Majority baseline: accuracy ~0.50, macro-F1 ~0.50. TF-IDF+LR: CV macro-F1 ~0.78–0.90; test macro-F1 >= 0.75; confusion matrix consistent with improved recall for both classes. Shuffled-label macro-F1 near chance (~0.5).

Baseline Modeling Discipline — Quick Test

Test your knowledge with 10 questions. Pass with 70% or higher.

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