Who this is for
NLP Engineers and ML practitioners who build classical NLP systems (TF-IDF, bag-of-words, linear models) and want a reliable, repeatable way to set and beat baselines before adding complexity.
Prerequisites
- Comfortable with Python or another language for ML experiments.
- Basic understanding of metrics: precision, recall, F1, ROC-AUC/PR-AUC.
- Knowledge of train/validation/test splits and cross-validation.
- Familiarity with TF-IDF and linear models (Logistic Regression or Linear SVM).
Why this matters
Baseline modeling discipline helps you ship reliable NLP solutions faster and safer. Real tasks you will face:
- Quickly verifying if a business problem is solvable with simple features before investing in complex models.
- Setting acceptance criteria for stakeholders (e.g., "+5 macro-F1 over TF-IDF + Logistic Regression").
- Preventing data leakage by following a clean, repeatable workflow.
- Explaining performance trade-offs using transparent baselines and error breakdowns.
- Creating a safe fallback model that is easy to maintain and debug.
Concept explained simply
Baseline modeling discipline is a habit: start with simple, transparent models, prove a reliable yardstick, and require every new idea to beat it fairly. Think of it as defensive driving for ML experiments.
Mental model: guardrails and yardsticks
- Guardrails: rules that prevent bad experiments (leakage, cherry-picking, unreproducible results).
- Yardsticks: simple, trustworthy baselines that any new model must beat with a margin.
Core rules
- Define the task and metric clearly (e.g., macro-F1 for imbalanced classification).
- Start with naive baselines: random, majority class, simple keyword/regex or lexicon heuristic.
- Add a simple ML baseline: TF-IDF + linear model with reproducible settings.
- Use proper splits: stratified train/validation/test; never peek at test during development.
- Reproducibility: fix random seeds, record dataset version and preprocessing choices.
- Evaluate fairly: report multiple metrics, confidence intervals if possible, and per-class scores.
- Sanity checks: shuffled-label test should drop to chance; tiny-slice tests should behave intuitively.
- Freeze the baseline: log config and metrics; require a clear margin and a significance check to accept new models.
Baseline types — quick reference
- Trivial: random guess, stratified random, majority class.
- Heuristic: keyword/regex rules, sentiment lexicon counts, most-frequent-tag per token (for sequence labeling).
- Simple ML: TF-IDF + Logistic Regression/Linear SVM (often surprisingly strong).
- Upper bound (ceiling): human performance on a sample or an oracle feature ablation to estimate headroom.
Sanity-check recipes
- Shuffle labels: performance should drop to chance (e.g., ~0.5 macro-F1 in balanced binary tasks).
- Vocabulary leak check: build vectorizers only on training folds; never on the full dataset before splitting.
- Class imbalance check: compare macro-F1 vs accuracy; big gaps signal imbalance.
- Slice tests: evaluate on short texts, long texts, and noisy texts separately.
Set up your baseline workflow
- Write the task statement and metric. Example: "Binary sentiment; primary metric = macro-F1; secondary = accuracy."
- Freeze data handling. Stratified split into train/validation/test. Keep test untouched until the end.
- Implement naive baselines (majority, random, simple keyword). Record metrics.
- Implement TF-IDF + linear model. Use cross-validation on train for a stable estimate; then evaluate once on test.
- Run sanity checks (shuffle labels, slice tests). If anything fails, fix before proceeding.
- Log everything: seed, split method, vectorizer settings, model hyperparameters, metrics, confusion matrix.
- Freeze as "Baseline v1". Define a margin for acceptance (e.g., +2–3 macro-F1) and a significance test plan.
Pro tips for reliable baselines
- Use stratified K-fold cross-validation (e.g., 5 folds) for stable estimates on small datasets.
- Prefer macro-F1 or PR-AUC when classes are imbalanced.
- For text classification, try unigrams+bigrams TF-IDF and a linear model before anything else.
- Document all preprocessing (lowercasing, stopwords, min_df). Small changes can shift metrics.
Worked examples
Example 1: Sentiment classification (balanced)
- Naive baselines: majority accuracy ≈ 0.50; macro-F1 ≈ 0.50.
- TF-IDF + Logistic Regression: CV macro-F1 ≈ 0.78–0.90; test macro-F1 often ≥ 0.75 on clean data.
- Sanity: shuffled-label macro-F1 ≈ chance (≈ 0.5); if not, investigate leakage.
Example 2: Spam detection (imbalanced)
- Naive majority: high accuracy (e.g., 0.90) but poor recall for spam — misleading.
- Metric choice: PR-AUC and macro-F1 to value minority class. Consider class_weight="balanced".
- TF-IDF + Linear SVM: improves minority recall; tune threshold on validation to balance precision/recall.
Example 3: NER (sequence labeling)
- Naive baseline: tag each token with its most frequent tag seen in training; unknown tokens → "O".
- Heuristic baseline: simple dictionary for names + capitalization features.
- Simple ML baseline: CRF with word shape + affix + cluster features; evaluate with entity-level F1.
Exercises
Complete the two exercises below. Use the checklist to confirm your baseline discipline before you submit.
- Exercise 1: Build majority and TF-IDF + Logistic Regression baselines on a toy sentiment set. Report macro-F1, accuracy, confusion matrix, and sanity checks.
- Exercise 2: Design a baseline plan for an imbalanced intent classification task. Choose metrics, splits, baselines, success criteria, and a reporting template.
Submission checklist
- Clear task statement and chosen primary/secondary metrics.
- Stratified split with fixed random seed recorded.
- Naive baselines implemented and logged.
- TF-IDF + linear baseline with CV estimate and a single test evaluation.
- Sanity checks run (shuffle-label and at least one slice test).
- All hyperparameters and metrics recorded; short error analysis included.
Common mistakes and how to self-check
- Leakage via vectorizer: Did you fit TF-IDF on the whole dataset before splitting? If yes, redo with train-only.
- Overfitting to test: Did you peek at test scores while tuning? If yes, create a new final test or reset tuning.
- Wrong metric for imbalance: Are accuracy and macro-F1 diverging a lot? Use macro-F1/PR-AUC and per-class scores.
- No seed control: Can you reproduce results exactly? If not, fix seeds and log versions.
- Unstable estimates: Are results jumping across runs? Use cross-validation and report mean±std.
Practical projects
- Product review sentiment: establish majority/keyword baselines, then TF-IDF + Logistic Regression; ship a baseline API.
- Support email triage: imbalanced multi-class; choose macro-F1 + PR-AUC, add class weights, and slice by sender domain.
- Rule vs model showdown: build a regex/keyword heuristic and compare fairly to a TF-IDF baseline on a frozen test set.
Learning path
- After baselines: feature scaling of TF-IDF outputs, n-gram exploration, character n-grams for noisy text.
- Model calibration: reliability curves and threshold selection.
- Error analysis: confusion hotspots, per-class failures, and iterative ablation.
- Transition to neural baselines only after you beat the classical baseline with a fair protocol.
Mini challenge
Pick any small dataset you have (or use the toy one from Exercise 1). Create a baseline scoreboard (majority, heuristic, TF-IDF + linear). Define a +3 macro-F1 acceptance margin. Propose one feature change (e.g., add character n-grams) and test if it beats the margin with a significance check plan.
Hints
- Keep the test set untouched; compare changes via cross-validation on train or with a fixed validation set.
- Use stratified bootstrap of paired predictions to estimate confidence in the improvement.
Quick Test
The quick test is available to everyone. Only logged-in users will have their progress saved.
Next steps
- Run the Quick Test below to check your understanding.
- Apply the discipline to your next real task and freeze a Baseline v1.
- Move on to deeper feature engineering once your baseline is solid and reproducible.